A new report warns the tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and between Iran and Saudi Arabia, are reaching a “critical level,” as are the “risks of a deliberate or accidental confrontation among these parties,” explains a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
The conclusion comes from the Crisis Group, which explains Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed by several world powers and Iran – which intended to curb Iran’s nuclear plan – is two years into its life and facing “jeopardy.”
President Donald Trump removed the U.S. from the agreement in May.
“Simultaneously, regional dynamics across the Middle East are trending in a worrisome direction. Friction between Iran and the U.S. is growing in Iraq and Syria as the strength of their common foe, the Islamic State (ISIS), diminishes. In Lebanon, Yemen and the Persian Gulf, Israel, the U.S. and a more assertive Saudi leadership see an emboldened Iran they are determined to cut down to size,” the report says.
There are a lot of bad things that could happen, the report contends.
“Escalation on one front could provoke escalation on another: U.S. efforts to undermine the JCPOA could prompt Iran to respond asymmetrically by targeting U.S. forces in Iraq or Syria; Iranian actions in the region could push the U.S. executive or legislative branches to take action jeopardizing the nuclear deal; another Huthi missile launch against Saudi Arabia could result in U.S. or Saudi retaliation against Iran; an Israeli strike against a target in Syria could trigger a Hezbollah response, in turn engulfing Lebanon. In short, these intersecting crises significantly increase the possibility of an intentional or inadvertent, direct or indirect confrontation between Tehran and Washington, the consequences of which could be catastrophic. Yet missing from this picture is any hint of diplomacy among principal stakeholders.”
The report says it is launching its Iran-U.S. Trigger list to provide an early-warning system to a potential catastrophe.
“It is an interactive early-warning platform aimed at monitoring, analyzing and providing regular updates on the key and increasingly tense flashpoints between Iran and the U.S. or between their respective allies,” the organization reported.
“Based on our evaluation of these developments both individually and collectively, we will measure the likelihood of confrontation, based on a five-level, color-coded risk assessment: low, moderate, substantial, severe or critical. We also will identify opportunities stemming from potential positive developments in these various areas (e.g, a prisoner release, a ceasefire agreement in Syria or Yemen, or a high-level meeting between Iranian and U.S. officials). Finally, we will propose concrete measures to avert the most dangerous outcomes.”